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In an election year in which House Democrats expect to make major gains, in a state where Democrats hope to perform particularly well, perhaps no congressional district appears as likely to flip from red to blue as New York's 25th. The seat, soon to be vacated by retiring Rep. James Walsh, currently tops the Hotline list of the seats most likely to change hands, and early fundraising totals suggest businessman Dan Maffei will enjoy a sizable cash lead over his Republican opponent.

Putting his advantages to good use, Maffei this week became the first Democrat in the state to buy time for a TV ad, airing a biographical spot (subscription) highlighting his local roots and commitment to improving the economy. In the ad, Maffei talks about the Rust Belt district's economic downturn, noting that, "by the time I went to my 10th high school reunion, most of my classmates had left." He ends on a positive, if nostalgic note, promising in vague terms to "make upstate New York great again."

The ad itself is standard fare for a debut, one intended to reintroduce Maffei to area voters who might not remember him from his narrow loss for the seat in 2006. But such a significant investment (it's airing in the Syracuse and Buffalo media markets) so early (the primary isn't for another two months, and neither party's front-runner currently faces serious competition) signals an aggressive approach by Democrats to winning targeted House seats this year.